最具投资前景新技术-水力压裂电磁成像技术

文 | 赵争光

澳大利亚昆士兰大学

University of Queensland, Australia


石油行业的上游勘探开发领域是资本密集型和技术密集型的行业,技术革新往往带来资本的大量涌入。众所周知,北美的页岩气革命主要得益于水平井钻井和水力压裂两大技术,而作为水力压裂技术的辅助配套技术微地震监测技术亦是功不可没。

北美地区是全球最大的压裂市场,每年有大约25000口井的压裂工作量。水力压裂技术的成熟与广泛应用在全球范围内催生了万亿美元级别的油服市场,涵盖压裂设计软件开发销售、压裂工具装备的研发、制造与销售、压裂液及支撑剂的生产、运输与销售以及现场一体化作业。这一领域是石油行业油服领域近二十年来出现的最大的技术革新与吸金运动,在油价如此低迷的环境下,下一个具备形成万亿级别市场的类似的技术革新目前难以预见。

确切的统计数据显示,美国2009年共进行了约75000个压裂段的施工,其中大约3%的压裂段进行了微地震监测(Zoback et al., 2010)。微地震监测技术主要在北美及中国大规模应用,形成了百亿美元的油服市场。在这一领域,仅北美就有多达30家微地震监测公司活跃在压裂监测领域,这些公司九成以上是在2004年以后开展微地震监测服务;而在中国,多达70家地球物理服务公司在2008年以后建立微地震部门并开展微地震监测服务。而且值得一提的是,水力压裂巨大的市场规模吸引了传统矿震监测领域的地球物理公司纷纷将业务重点转向油气田水力压裂监测领域,典型的案例是加拿大的ESG Solutions公司和国内的中微震公司

北美的微震监测技术大规模应用始于2004年,而国内的大规模应用始于2008年,国内虽然起步较晚,但也不能认为国内微震技术发展滞后,只能讲无论技术研发还是技术应用方面,两者的历史阶段明显不同。

北美微地震监测业务受油价下跌影响较大。美国地面监测领域的巨头MicroSeismic Inc.公司被迫关闭在加拿大的业务部门,而以地面监测著称的Spectraseis公司则被ESG Solutions收购

而在国内,具有积极意义的是微地震监测的业务量并不像北美一样自2014年呈现断崖式下跌,尤其是南方页岩气开发是既定的国策并得到国家层面的大力推动,页岩气水平井的压裂仍然活跃,这也使得国内微地震监测领域的龙头老大中国石油东方地球物理勘探公司(BGP)的微地震监测业务在2014、2015年至今仍然能够大幅度盈利。其它微地震监测公司也在这一过程中赚得盆满钵满,甚至单独一家公司可在国内一个油田获得200余口的微地震监测作业量,以2014年以前平均50万元/井或者2014年以后平均30万元/井的合同价格计算,营业收入相当可观,无论总收入还是净利润,都要比传统三维地震处理与解释领域的地球物理公司大上2个数量级。

从以上的分析可以看到,新技术尤其是革命性的创新技术在发展的过程中,将会孕育体量巨大的油服市场,而抓住新技术由不成熟到成熟这一特定阶段机遇的公司会有大幅度的业绩提升。当前低油价环境下,虽然石油行业上游勘探开发领域各环节的投入整体都在减少,但有远见的企业仍然在寻找新技术并投入研发,希望在下一轮油价拉起时发力新技术的推广应用。

笔者一直在关注压裂领域的新技术,并向前来咨询的企业推荐处于不同发展阶段的新技术。新技术的在大规模推广应用前的发展阶段大致可以分为4个阶段:概念期、原型期、试验期、成熟期

  • 概念期:指仅形成初步认识的时期,没有硬件、软件等实物,仅具有基于物理、化学等学科的理论基础;
  • 原型期:指根据概念做出硬件工具或软件算法,可以用来开展试验验证概念的正确与否;
  • 试验期:指根据技术原型进行实验室尺度或现场试验,验证技术可行性的阶段;
  • 成熟期:指工业界和学术界进行大量的试验,技术原型得到不断改进,慢慢达到工业化要求的阶段,这一阶段一旦完成,该技术将得到整个行业的认可,拥有该技术的公司将凭该技术获得超额利润。

笔者认为,在当前油价较低投资减少的情况下,企业最好选择已经处于试验期或成熟期的技术进行投资,可以较快收回投资成本。在此推荐处于试验期的水力压裂电磁成像技术,笔者基于以下五点判断该技术将是下一个百亿美元的油服市场。

工业界迫切需求

石油工业界通常通过微震图像来了解压裂效果。微震图像是通过采集岩石相互摩擦(类似打响指)发出的爆裂声绘制的,这种造缝和注入支撑剂并确保成功造缝的方式不是一种低噪、高效的方法。微震图像并不能告诉我们支撑剂的分布位置。它只能显示压裂失败的位置。相比之下,了解支撑剂的分布位置对于了解压裂效果十分重要。在许多地层,已支撑的裂缝是油井产量的主要贡献者。这也是电磁造像技术与微震图像相比最大的优势。

当前,在水力压裂微地震监测实践中,尤其是页岩气水平井多段体积压裂微地震监测项目中,通常通过定位后的微地震事件点生成SRV(Stimulated Reservoir Volume, 压裂改造体积)图件和数值直观地判断改造的储层体积大小和评价压裂效果。由于SRV描述的是微震体积,大于压裂液波及的区域并且远远大于对产能有贡献的支撑体积,因此基于SRV预测的产能和压裂井的实际产能符合率较低,越来越多的压裂工程师不相信SRV和基于SRV做出的渗透率及产能预测

SRV vs. EPV
SRV vs. EPV

通过统计分析2006~2015年间发表的有关SRV的SPE会议论文及相关期刊论文发现,关于SRV的描述及工程应用在逐渐减少,微震监测领域出现明显的“去SRV化”趋势。定量描述储层改造体积的SRV逐渐淡出,被EPV(Effective Propped Volume, 有效支撑体积)的概念所取代。正是这一趋势促进了工业界和学术界转而寻求一种能够直接描述支撑剂分布的裂缝成像技术,从而进行更精确的压后产能预测。

理论基础完备

致力于电磁支撑剂造像方法研究的工作人员还需要说服持怀疑态度的油藏工程师们,令他们相信这些基于深奥物理和数学方法创建的图像能够描述井底的真实情况。

其实,通过电阻率差来寻找原油的想法,来源于100年前斯伦贝谢兄弟进行地下测量时所使用的方法。电磁法是地球物理学最早使用的几种方法之一,一直传承至今。与之前不同的是,在电磁能注入储层内的方法和接收技术方面有了革新。因此,该技术不但拥有完备的理论基础,而且该领域的激发和接收仪器装备也在不改进,研究过程中也会吸收借鉴了从材料科学到地球物理等诸多学科的科技进步成果。

国家层面推动

由于水力压裂在美国页岩气革命中的重要作用并且为美国实现能源独立贡献巨大,围绕水力压裂开展科学研究也是美国国家意志。美国能源部(DOE)国家能源科技实验室(NETL)目前在资助四个团队进行新一代水力压裂裂缝监测技术的研究,所谓的新一代技术是指不包括传井下电视、微地震测量、放射性示踪剂、井温测试、地面和井底测斜仪监测等在内的已经成熟并大规模应用的监测技术。而这四个团队中除美国Paulsson公司进行有源微震监测之外(点击查看详情),其它三个团队均研究电磁成像技术,分别为:

  • Carbo和GroundMetrics
  • Advanced Energy Consortium(AEC)
  • UT压裂JIP技术项目组

大牛抱团背书

德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校(UT Austin)石油工程专业的教授Mukul Sharma是德克萨斯大学水力压裂和防砂联合工业项目(UT Fracturing JIP)的带头人,也参与了NETL新一代压裂监测技术研究项目。Sharma教授将其视为取代微震监测的替代技术,他的原话是 “There is a good bit of interest in it. I think in the next 4 or 5 years there will be some kind of commercial deployment。”

另外,为AEC提供电磁技术支持的Multi-Phase Technologies的首席科学家Douglas La Brecque也是电磁监测技术的推动者。Multi-Phase Technologies公司是德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校经济地质局的一部分。

不仅学术界和工业界的大牛在推动该技术,石油行业的学会也是新技术的推动者。在石油行业,前沿技术进入成熟期具有非常明显的标志,即SPE/SEG/AAPG/EAGE等全球学会组织针对这一领域召开专门的国际会议。一般来讲,上述学会单独召开研讨会则标志着该技术已经进入试验期;而在年会中开辟专题标志着该技术已经成熟并进入工业应用阶段。正如微地震技术的发展一样,EAGE已经召开6届被动地震研讨会,SEG也于2014年召开第一届国际微地震技术研讨会,并且年会和期刊均有微地震专题。而关于电磁监测的学术报告和论文已经出现在2016 年SPE水力压裂技术大会中,代表作有SPE 179170, SPE 179161。相信,在可以预见的两三年里,水力压裂电磁监测将出现在各种会议的专题里。

现场试验已获成功

2016年3月,中国压裂网报道了作为世界领先的电磁勘探公司及油气科技先锋,GroundMetrics公司成功地为CARBO陶粒公司及康菲石油公司在德州本部一口油井的试验提供了电磁监测服务(点击查看详情)。试验用来确定水力压裂作业过程中支撑剂在地下运移到哪里。

well-site
试验井场:1. 地球物理传输和控制设备;2. 电磁支撑剂筒仓;3. 压裂车组;4. 压裂井;5. 电磁监测信号源

在Carbo公司的测试中,电源顺着电缆被送至水平井底部与套管接触的部分,使这个刚性套管成为激发支撑剂的电磁场源。 将套管用作电磁场天线的时间并不长。Ground Metric公司广泛地使用了这种技术,而在与Carbo公司的合作中,采用了20套这样的电磁接收器来收集被激发的支撑剂发出的信息。通过比较压裂前后三十分钟接收到数据,绘制电磁图像。 在美国军方的帮助下,Ground Metrics公司开发了新一代接收器,利用这种接收器能够测量井下电位变化。Wilkinson认为这些接收器比galvanic device更可靠,galvanic device的读数有很大的浮动,且老式接收器很难安装和维护。

GroundMetrics公司的CEO George Eiskamp称“我们对此次监测的结果非常兴奋。考虑到石油行业当前的危机,我们必须利用创新的技术来寻找优化产能的新方法。导电支撑剂电磁成像技术(Electromagnetic imaging of conductive proppant)是一个绝佳案例。它为作业者提供能付诸实施的洞见,并足以改变油气田的作业成本结构。”


相信通过上述介绍,读者已经看到了电磁成像技术的魅力所在。在当前的石油行业上游勘探开发领域,电磁成像技术是为数不多的具备【工业界迫切需求、理论基础完备、国家层面推动、大牛抱团背书、现场试验成功】五要素的试验期前沿技术,具有极大的投资回报前景。因此,即使目前压裂行业处于低谷,仍有必要跟踪这一前沿技术,适时投入研发。

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